For the past couple of weeks, I have received multiple questions from folks in regard to the Coronavirus and the effect it will have on the Real Estate market.  I am not a scientist nor do I pretend to be one, so I will leave the medical part up to the experts. 

However, I am a Real Estate Professional with extensive experience in the Southern California Real Estate market representing buyers/sellers and buying and selling my own properties.  Thus, below are my summarized Observations:

Observation 1:  The crystal ball and speculation are fun, but to coin a phrase from my old Econ Professor at the University of Redlands some thirty years ago, “show me the data.”  Hence, lets look at what the numbers say over the last week from 3 April 2020 to 10 April 2020 in the Ventura County MLS for all of Ventura County:

A.     New Active Listings = 137

B.      Active Under Contracts = 137

C.      Pending = 119

D.    Closed = 135

Analysis 1:  Obviously there are still buyers and sellers of Real Estate based on the numbers but not to the extent of a normal spring which would typically have numbers two or three times the above amount.   Also, about 70 percent of the pendings over the last week were contracts taken in early March.

Observation 2:  The under $700,000 real estate market and other unique properties have been fairly active with multiple offers on some properties. 

Analysis 2:  There is a limited supply of active listings in some property categories as numerous sellers have postponed their listings but there are still active buyers of Real Estate.  Thus, with fewer listings, buyers are competing for properties.  Hence, inventory is limited.

Thus, the Question what happens after the virus as it relates to Real Estate: 

Again, I will avoid the crystal ball and unwarranted speculation and focus on past data from previous recessions (Economist predict a recession of some sort from the virus) and the effects it had on the Real Estate Market , below are National Averages from Corelogic the biggest data collection company for Real Estate Prices:

1980: 6.1 % Increase

1981:  3.5 % Increase

1991:  1.9% Decrease

2001:  6.6% Increase

2008: 19.7 % Decrease

Thus, in three out of five recessions, prices of Real Estate increased.  Of course, we don’t know what happens after this predicted recession, we can only use data to help us make informed decisions.   We also know that in Southern California the above numbers can be skewed as our increases and decreases are typically greater than the national averages. 

Therefore, it boils down to what a buyer’s or seller’s timeline for a purchase or sale is.  Market timing is a futile experience and nearly impossible to predict.  If a buyer plans on living in a home for 10 to 20 years, whether they buy now or after the virus plays itself out is probably not as relevant as many speculate.  If a buyer finds a property they like, then buy it.    If a seller needs to sale, one advantage to putting the house on the market at this time, is they will have less competition from other sellers.   In summary, use data, your personal financial situation, and your own timeline to make your Real Estate decisions.  

About Dave Crowell, Dave Crowell is the Broker/Owner of American Dream Realty in Camarillo Ca and a top producing Camarillo Real Estate Agent, DRE 01845970.  For more information feel free to contact Dave at 805-300-3345 or visit my website at www.mycamarilloproperties.com for seller and buyer tools.  Also, for a valuation report on your home go to:

What is my Home Worth

Dave Crowell
Broker/Realtor
American Dream Realty
Direct Line: 805-300-3345
email: crowelldg@gmail.com
www.davecrowellrealtor.com

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VA Loan Limit in Ventura County in 2019

The Va Loan Limit in Ventura County for 2019 is $713,000.  For more info on buying a house with no money down and how to purchase a VA approved property contact Dave Crowell American Dream Realty at 805-300-3345 a top producing Ventura County Realtor.  Also, you may visit our website at www.mycamarilloproperties.com

Are long term low Mortgage Interest Rates here to stay?

In case you haven’t noticed, the Real Estate market, at least in Southern California, has been on an upward tear since 2012.  Hence, we are seven years into the latest price appreciation of Real Estate in SoCal. There are numerous factors that have contributed to this upward cycle such as the robust economy, pent up demand, supply/demand, and the topic of this article - low mortgage rates. 

 Below are two charts, the first chart indicates the historical averages of the 30 Year Mortgage Rate and the second chart indicates the historical yields of the 10 Year T-Bill.  Hence, notice the correlation:

30 Year Mortgage Rate Historical Chart

 10 Year T-Bill Historical Chart

Lastly, back to my original question, are long term low Mortgage Rates here to stay?  I believe yes at least in the upcoming decade, below is my rationale.  First, U.S. Treasury bills are sold throughout the world and are considered a safe haven for world wide investors, thus the continued demand for U.S. Treasury bills as an attractive safe investment will keep yields low.  Second, the U.S. government has an interest in keeping yields low since the federal deficit is approaching 22 Trillion.  Let me elaborate, the U.S. government has to pay interest on bonds.  Therefore, it has a keen interest in artificially keeping the interest on treasury bills low.  Thus, the lower the yield on treasury bills, the less interest the U.S. government has to pay on bonds which in turn keeps the looming federal deficit under reasonable management.  Third, Politicians and the government have an interest in keeping mortgage rates low as the economic engine of the U.S. is based on the purchase of consumer goods by the average Joe.  Thus, if mortgage rates are low, housing appreciates in value and in turn the average Joe can refinance their house and buy more goods.

In summary, in my opinion long term rates will remain low at least for the unforeseeable future for the reasons specified above.  About the author, Dave Crowell, American Dream Realty, is a top producing Realtor in Camarillo, California.  To contact Dave Crowell, call 805-300-3345 or visit his website at Dave Crowell Realtor.

Dave Crowell at American Dream Realty provides a free Property Valuation Report for more information please go to Free Property Valuation

VA Loans Ventura County for Veterans

Veterans in Ventura County, the VA loan limit for 2019 has been increased to $713,000. A veteran can now by a house in Ventura County with zero percent down and finance there closing costs.  There are many homes in Ventura County that qualify for VA financing.  Hence, if you are a veteran and are looking to buy a home in Ventura County please call Dave Crowell, American Dream Realty, at 805-300-3345 a former Navy veteran and top producing Camarillo Real Estate Agent.  You may also visit or website at www.mycamarilloproperties.com for more info.  The below property currently on the market is an example of a VA Loan eligible property.

291 Picado Dr Camarillo CA 93012 listed at $559,900

USDA Loans for Home Purchase in Fillmore CA

Surprisingly Fillmore Ca within 40 minutes of Los Angeles qualifies for the rural USDA zero percent down payment program.  This program is designed to assist home buyers with their purchase of a house in rural areas throughout the United States.  Interestingly, Fillmore Ca qualifies for the USDA Zero Percent Down Home Purchase Program - some restrictions apply.

If you would like to learn how to purchase a home with a 0 Percent down payment for homes in Fillmore CA call Dave Crowell at American Dream Realty 805-300-3345 or visiting my website at www.mycamarilloproperties.com