Ventura County Real Estate and Community News

 

June 3, 2020

Coronavirus Real Estate Market June 3, 2020 Update Number 4 – Ventura County is a Hot Market

 

 

Coronavirus Real Estate Market June 3, 2020 Update Number 4 – Ventura County is a Hot Market

 

As I have previously mentioned in past blogs, and in conversations with many of you over the last couple of months, the Real Estate market this spring has been active. 

 

However, the Ventura County Real Estate market over the last three weeks or so, for lack of a better term, has been hot, sizzling, blistering, and any other adjective you can think of relating to fantastic.  Therefore, what is driving this Ventura County Real Estate market in the midst of a pandemic and social and economic disarray?

 

First, the Feds, meaning the federal government (federal reserve) is pumping money into “the system” like never seen before.  The Feds are stimulating the economy by buying up assets to shore up the balance sheet including mortgage backed securities, providing business owners grants/loans, stimulus checks, and most importantly keep interest rates at all time lows.  As a result, buyers with a couple of bucks in their pocket, decent employment, and respectable credit can qualify for a mortgage in the three percent range. 

 

Second, the trend is reversing, and the “burbs” are back.  Over the last ten or so years, the Los Angeles city center area including the valley and the westside have seen rapid price increases and significant demand for their real estate as people flocked to live within various parts of Los Angeles to be close to the entertainment and tech industries. 

 

However, we have seen over the last month in particular a recent surge of people from the Los Angeles area wanting to move to the pristine open areas of Ventura County as a result of covid-19.  This recent phenomenon has been spurred by potential buyers looking for home office spaces, larger houses, less people, and better prices.  Some companies have concluded that their workers can function in a home office in lieu of their corporate offices.  Consequently, maybe the trend is reversing back to the “burbs” from the city center.

 

Now the moment you have all been waiting for (drumroll please), the raw data to support my above rationale from The Ventura County MLS May 2020: 

 

New Listings:  535

Active Under Contract:   296

 

Pending: 426

 

Closed:  501

 

Now let’s compare May 2020 to May of 2019 from our local MLS in Ventura County, below is the data from May 2019:

 

New Listings:  1123

 

Active Under Contract:  702

 

Pending:  793

 

Closed:  761

 

As we can see, the activity level has decreased significantly.  In particular, the number of new listings in May 2019 was 1123, compared to 535 new listings in May 2020.  However, that number is to expected as Covid-19 has reduced the number of sellers for social distancing reasons.  But the big takeaway from the above data is the differential of new listings in relationship to closed listings which effects inventory.  In May of 2019 there were 1123 new listings and 761 closed listings for a net difference of + 362 and in May 2020 there were 535 new listings and 501 closed listings for a net difference of + 34. So what does all that mean?  There are significantly fewer properties on the market.  Consequently, with low rates and a large pool of buyers, properties go quickly.

 

Some of my buyers in March and April were hoping for dramatic price decreases due to covid-19.  However, as I have previously mentioned, Real Estate typically trails the economy and in the case with the Feds pumping the system full of money, pricing for Real Estate at least in Ventura County continues to creep at an upward trend.  Consequently, as I have been saying all along, if you need to buy then buy if you need to sell then sell. Timing the market in any asset class is nearly impossible.  Hence, if it makes sense go for it. 

 

About Dave Crowell, Dave Crowell is the Broker/Owner of American Dream Realty in Camarillo Ca and a top producing Camarillo Real Estate Agent, DRE 01845970.  For more information feel free to contact Dave at 805-300-3345 or visit my website at www.mycamarilloproperties.com for seller and buyer tools.  Also, for a valuation report on your home go to:

 

What is my Home Worth

Dave Crowell

Broker/Owner

American Dream Realty

Cell: 805-300-3345

FOR INSTANT PROPERTY VALUATION REPORTS - CLICK HERE

crowelldg@gmail.com
www.mycamarilloproperties.com

DRE Lic: 01845970

May 11, 2020

Coronavirus Real Estate Market Update May 11 2020

 

Coronavirus Real Estate Market May 11, 2020 Update Number 3 – Properties are Selling

 

As I mentioned in my previous blogs at www.mycamarilloproperties.com/blog, Real Estate Transactions are still occurring.  However, the volume of listings and transactions have declined.  Pricing has been relatively stable up to this point.

 I like to steer away from the crystal ball and not make Real Estate Predictions.  Hence, let look at the data, “follow the numbers:”

Below is the activity from April of 2020, this year from our local MLS in Ventura County:

 

A.    New Listings:  475

 

B.     Under Contract: 289

 

C.     Pending:  416

 

D.    Closed:  487

 

2.     Now let us compare April 2020 to April of 2019 from our local MLS in Ventura County, below is the data from April 2019:

         

A.    New Listings:  1072

 

B.     Under Contract:  574

 

C.    Pending:  797

 

D.    Closed: 699

 

As you can see, the activity level has decreased significantly. In particular, this has been seen in new listings.  However, an important component is that the amount of properties under contract on a percentage basis is the same.  In April of 2020, 289 properties went under contract and there were 475 new listings for a percentage of 61%.  In April of 2019, 574 properties went under contract and there were 1072 new listings for a percentage of 54%.  What is the takeaway from that data?  While the volume has decreased, properties are still going into escrow at the same, if not greater percentage frequency, than the previous year.

 

Of course, the number one question that I get on a daily basis is “What about Real Estate prices?”  The good news for sellers is that prices have increased 3.8 % from March of 2019 to 2020 in Ventura County according to our local MLS.  For those that know me, I steer away from Real Estate price predictions, in particular this spring.  As the Federal Government has pumped so much money into the system, kept rates at historic lows, the pricing of equities and real estate have remained solid for the most part.

 

Consequently, if you need to buy, then buy.  If you need to sell, then sell. As of this writing the numbers have indicated that the volume has decreased but prices have remained stable. 

 

About Dave Crowell, Dave Crowell is the Broker/Owner of American Dream Realty in Camarillo Ca and a top producing Camarillo Real Estate Agent, DRE 01845970.  For more information feel free to contact Dave at 805-300-3345 or visit my website at www.mycamarilloproperties.com for seller and buyer tools. 

Also, for a valuation report on your home go to:

What is my Home Worth

 

Dave Crowell

Broker/Owner

American Dream Realty

Cell: 805-300-3345

FOR INSTANT PROPERTY VALUATION REPORTS - CLICK HERE

crowelldg@gmail.com
www.mycamarilloproperties.com

DRE Lic: 01845970

April 24, 2020

Real Estate and the Cornoavirus

 

Re: Coronavirus Real Estate Market Update 24 April 2020 - Update Number 2

 As I mentioned in my previous Update, transactions are still occurring during the Coronavirus Pandemic.  The frequency of Real Estate transactions has declined significantly.  Of note, real estate prices have not declined.  Rather than delve into an extensive analysis, and as I mentioned during my last update, I think it is prudent to avoid predictions but to focus on Data, real numbers.

 

 1.      Hence, let’s look at what the numbers derived from the Ventura County MLS for all of Ventura County from April 1 to April 23 2020 state:

 

A.     New Active Listings = 412

 

B.     Active Under Contracts = 198

 

C.    Pending = 342

 

D.   Closed = 389

 

2.      To form an analysis on the above numbers, let’s look at the numbers from last year (April 1 to April 23 2019) from the same time period:

 

A.    New Active Listings = 892

 

B.     Active Under Contracts = 513

 

C.    Pending = 585

 

D.   Closed = 548

 

As predicted, the volume and sheer number of closings are significantly less from the previous year.  The true indicator will be the month of May, as many of the closings in April of this year were deals consummated at the end of February and beginning of March before the world shut down.

 

Of course, the number one question that I receive from prospective homebuyers and home sellers: Are Real Estate prices declining or do you think that prices will decrease in the future?  Again, I think it’s important to look at actual data.  As of this writing, Real Estate prices have not declined but we have to remember that Real Estate is typically trails the economy is the asset is not liquid.  For example, using data from corelogic in the City of Camarillo, the mean average closed property in February of 2020 was $634,000 and in April 2020 it was $675,000.  However, it will be important keep tabs on the mean average going forward for closed properties particular in the late summer and early fall.  I will keep you updated.

 

What does all this mean? My take is, watch the numbers and avoid predictions.  If you need to sell, then sell. If you need to buy, then buy.  If you have no sense of urgency then by all means wait and see what happens.  One thing is certain there is less inventory and still a considerable amount of properties going into escrow as evidenced by the April activity, which on the surface bodes well for potential sellers.        

 

About Dave Crowell, Dave Crowell is the Broker/Owner of American Dream Realty in Camarillo Ca and a top producing Camarillo Real Estate Agent, DRE 01845970.  For more information feel free to contact Dave at 805-300-3345 or visit my website at www.mycamarilloproperties.com for seller and buyer tools.  Also, for a valuation report on your home go to:

What is my Home Worth

 

 

Dave Crowell

Broker/Owner

American Dream Realty

Cell: 805-300-3345

FOR INSTANT PROPERTY VALUATION REPORTS - CLICK HERE

crowelldg@gmail.com
www.mycamarilloproperties.com

DRE Lic: 01845970

 

April 10, 2020

Coronavirus Real Estate Market Update April 2020 - Update Number 1

For the past couple of weeks, I have received multiple questions from folks in regard to the Coronavirus and the effect it will have on the Real Estate market.  I am not a scientist nor do I pretend to be one, so I will leave the medical part up to the experts. 

 

However, I am a Real Estate Professional with extensive experience in the Southern California Real Estate market representing buyers/sellers and buying and selling my own properties.  Thus, below are my summarized Observations:

 

Observation 1:  The crystal ball and speculation are fun, but to coin a phrase from my old Econ Professor at the University of Redlands some thirty years ago, “show me the data.”  Hence, lets look at what the numbers say over the last week from 3 April 2020 to 10 April 2020 in the Ventura County MLS for all of Ventura County:

A.     New Active Listings = 137

B.      Active Under Contracts = 137

C.      Pending = 119

D.    Closed = 135

 

Analysis 1:  Obviously there are still buyers and sellers of Real Estate based on the numbers but not to the extent of a normal spring which would typically have numbers two or three times the above amount.   Also, about 70 percent of the pendings over the last week were contracts taken in early March.

 

Observation 2:  The under $700,000 real estate market and other unique properties have been fairly active with multiple offers on some properties. 

 

Analysis 2:  There is a limited supply of active listings in some property categories as numerous sellers have postponed their listings but there are still active buyers of Real Estate.  Thus, with fewer listings, buyers are competing for properties.  Hence, inventory is limited.

 

Thus, the Question what happens after the virus as it relates to Real Estate: 

Again, I will avoid the crystal ball and unwarranted speculation and focus on past data from previous recessions (Economist predict a recession of some sort from the virus) and the effects it had on the Real Estate Market , below are National Averages from Corelogic the biggest data collection company for Real Estate Prices:

1980: 6.1 % Increase

1981:  3.5 % Increase

1991:  1.9% Decrease

2001:  6.6% Increase

2008: 19.7 % Decrease

 

Thus, in three out of five recessions, prices of Real Estate increased.  Of course, we don’t know what happens after this predicted recession, we can only use data to help us make informed decisions.   We also know that in Southern California the above numbers can be skewed as our increases and decreases are typically greater than the national averages. 

 

Therefore, it boils down to what a buyer’s or seller’s timeline for a purchase or sale is.  Market timing is a futile experience and nearly impossible to predict.  If a buyer plans on living in a home for 10 to 20 years, whether they buy now or after the virus plays itself out is probably not as relevant as many speculate.  If a buyer finds a property they like, then buy it.    If a seller needs to sale, one advantage to putting the house on the market at this time, is they will have less competition from other sellers.   In summary, use data, your personal financial situation, and your own timeline to make your Real Estate decisions.  

 

About Dave Crowell, Dave Crowell is the Broker/Owner of American Dream Realty in Camarillo Ca and a top producing Camarillo Real Estate Agent, DRE 01845970.  For more information feel free to contact Dave at 805-300-3345 or visit my website at www.mycamarilloproperties.com for seller and buyer tools.  Also, for a valuation report on your home go to:

What is my Home Worth



Dave Crowell
Broker/Realtor
American Dream Realty
Direct Line: 805-300-3345
email: crowelldg@gmail.com
www.davecrowellrealtor.com



 

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Sept. 22, 2019

VA Loans in Ventura County 2019

VA Loan Limit in Ventura County in 2019

The Va Loan Limit in Ventura County for 2019 is $713,000.  For more info on buying a house with no money down and how to purchase a VA approved property contact Dave Crowell American Dream Realty at 805-300-3345 a top producing Ventura County Realtor.  Also, you may visit our website at www.mycamarilloproperties.com

 

 

July 24, 2019

Are long term mortgage Rates here to stay?

Are long term low Mortgage Interest Rates here to stay?

In case you haven’t noticed, the Real Estate market, at least in Southern California, has been on an upward tear since 2012.  Hence, we are seven years into the latest price appreciation of Real Estate in SoCal. There are numerous factors that have contributed to this upward cycle such as the robust economy, pent up demand, supply/demand, and the topic of this article - low mortgage rates. 

Therefore, lets delve into interest rates a little further to fully comprehend this component of Real Estate.  First, what determines the 30 Year fixed Mortgage interest rate (Long term rates)?  Despite popular opinion, long term Mortgage rates are not necessarily based off the federal reserve rate.  The barometer for the traditional 30 Year fixed rate is the 10 Year U.S. Treasury Bill or 10 Year T-bill.   Without over complicating the topic, when the 10 Year T-Bill Interest rate decreases, long term 30 Year Mortgage rates tend to decline as well. 

 

 

 Below are two charts, the first chart indicates the historical averages of the 30 Year Mortgage Rate and the second chart indicates the historical yields of the 10 Year T-Bill.  Hence, notice the correlation:

 

30 Year Mortgage Rate Historical Chart

 

 

 10 Year T-Bill Historical Chart

 

Lastly, back to my original question, are long term low Mortgage Rates here to stay?  I believe yes at least in the upcoming decade, below is my rationale.  First, U.S. Treasury bills are sold throughout the world and are considered a safe haven for world wide investors, thus the continued demand for U.S. Treasury bills as an attractive safe investment will keep yields low.  Second, the U.S. government has an interest in keeping yields low since the federal deficit is approaching 22 Trillion.  Let me elaborate, the U.S. government has to pay interest on bonds.  Therefore, it has a keen interest in artificially keeping the interest on treasury bills low.  Thus, the lower the yield on treasury bills, the less interest the U.S. government has to pay on bonds which in turn keeps the looming federal deficit under reasonable management.  Third, Politicians and the government have an interest in keeping mortgage rates low as the economic engine of the U.S. is based on the purchase of consumer goods by the average Joe.  Thus, if mortgage rates are low, housing appreciates in value and in turn the average Joe can refinance their house and buy more goods.

In summary, in my opinion long term rates will remain low at least for the unforeseeable future for the reasons specified above.  About the author, Dave Crowell, American Dream Realty, is a top producing Realtor in Camarillo, California.  To contact Dave Crowell, call 805-300-3345 or visit his website at Dave Crowell Realtor.

 

April 10, 2019

New Construction Buyer Commission Rebate

Jan. 13, 2019

Free Property Valuation Southern California

Dave Crowell at American Dream Realty provides a free Property Valuation Report for more information please go to Free Property Valuation

Posted in Selling Your Home
Jan. 2, 2019

VA Loans for Veterans Ventura County Limit for 2019

VA Loans Ventura County for Veterans

Veterans in Ventura County, the VA loan limit for 2019 has been increased to $713,000. A veteran can now by a house in Ventura County with zero percent down and finance there closing costs.  There are many homes in Ventura County that qualify for VA financing.  Hence, if you are a veteran and are looking to buy a home in Ventura County please call Dave Crowell, American Dream Realty, at 805-300-3345 a former Navy veteran and top producing Camarillo Real Estate Agent.  You may also visit or website at www.mycamarilloproperties.com for more info.  The below property currently on the market is an example of a VA Loan eligible property.

291 Picado Dr Camarillo CA 93012 listed at $559,900

Posted in Buying a Home
Dec. 9, 2018

0 Percent Down Payment USDA Loans Fillmore CA

USDA Loans for Home Purchase in Fillmore CA

Surprisingly Fillmore Ca within 40 minutes of Los Angeles qualifies for the rural USDA zero percent down payment program.  This program is designed to assist home buyers with their purchase of a house in rural areas throughout the United States.  Interestingly, Fillmore Ca qualifies for the USDA Zero Percent Down Home Purchase Program - some restrictions apply.

If you would like to learn how to purchase a home with a 0 Percent down payment for homes in Fillmore CA call Dave Crowell at American Dream Realty 805-300-3345 or visiting my website at www.mycamarilloproperties.com

 

Posted in Buying a Home